Blueprints for a greener economy

UN agencies, organisations such as the WWF and initiatives such as the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), as well as investors including Aviva, are therefore calling on governments to take their NDCs one step further and create national transition plans, to embed the transition into every aspect of government strategy.³

A recent policy brief to the G20, to which Manning contributed, stated these plans should include “stronger strategic orientation; a deeper focus on whole-of-government planning; and coherent policies, pathways and investment plans that target a just, equitable, low-emissions, climate resilient economy, in the context of countries’ sustainable development and growth priorities.”⁴

Developing a robust transition plan will take countries several years, requiring collaboration from every organ of government and engagement with business and citizens. However, setting a strategic framework for the 2025 NDCs can create the groundwork for a process to start developing a more holistic plan.

Thomas Tayler, head of climate finance at Aviva Investors, says such a plan should not be seen as a compliance burden but a strategic document setting out how countries will not only meet their decarbonisation commitments, but also take advantage of the opportunities of the transition to secure growth, business and jobs in their jurisdiction.

“This should be seen as a competitive advantage,” he says. “The better your transition plan, the more likely you are to secure inward investment, and therefore to be able to grow your economy and look after your citizens.”

Five key benefits of national transition plans

Manning says a national transition plan can serve five functions. Firstly, it can act as a compass, setting a clear strategic direction both within government and between government and the private sector.

Secondly, it can provide a costed action and investment plan. “We’ve seen some good examples of this. For instance, in its Just Energy Transition Investment Plan, South Africa sets out in detail the investments required to meet its decarbonisation and sustainable development goals in the electricity, new energy vehicles and green hydrogen sectors,” he says. “And last year, Kenya similarly developed an Energy Transition and Investment Plan. They’ve gone quite granular in identifying each of the actions that need to be taken and what they will cost.”⁵

Thirdly, it can act as a coordination vehicle between government and the private sector, for example through collaboration to develop sectoral pathways, to identify the gaps, barriers and potential policy conflicts. Public-private partnerships in funding are also crucial to pinpoint the key areas that need government intervention to dismantle barriers, or public investment to de-risk or catalyse private capital.

“It’s important to look at not just a national transition plan, but also how that national transition plan fits within an integrated ecosystem and works in tandem with private sector plans,” says Manning. “The Danish Climate Partnerships are a fantastic example. There are 14 sector-specific partnerships, designed to develop detailed recommendations for government on policy measures to accelerate the transition.

“Public development banks and other similar institutions can play an important role too. We’ve got an example from the UK, for instance, with the Green Investment Bank and its role in catalysing investment and scaling of offshore wind,” he adds.

Fourth, it can bring everything into a document that can be applied in practice and build coherence. Aviva is working with researchers at CETEx, the World Bank, Columbia University and King’s College London to develop a framework for national transition plans that is structured similarly to existing frameworks for private sector transition plans, but includes the key elements that are particular to governments.⁶

“In particular, we’re suggesting that national transition plans be organised under the same five pillars as the Transition Plan Taskforce Disclosure Framework (TPT) so investors can assess them in a similar way to how they would assess private sector transition plans,” Manning adds.

This will also facilitate the connectivity between national and private sector plans. (The framework, created by the UK’s Transition Plan Taskforce, is a globally applicable gold-standard disclosure framework for corporate transition plans.)⁷

Fiona Stewart, lead financial sector specialist at the World Bank, says adapting this foundational framework for sovereigns can create a more standardised approach that helps countries with very low capacity.

“Some of the debt offices in the countries we work in are literally a couple of people, so the more we can standardise, the easier we can make it for them, the better,” she says.

The fifth and final piece is commitment and accountability mechanisms, and institutional frameworks to support them.

“Investors need confidence that governments will follow through on their plans,” says Manning. “A robust institutional framework and clear roles and responsibilities – spanning the whole of government – are essential.”

Tayler says robust transition plans are something asset managers and institutional investors can also help deliver.

Investors can contribute to the achievement of NDCs through their strategic investments. They can also work with policymakers to help them understand what is needed in each sector to unlock the flow of finance to the transition.

Therefore, beyond setting out policy assumptions and dependencies in their net-zero commitments and their own transition plans, investors can engage with governments to help create the enabling environment they need to unlock investment in the transition.⁸

“Ministers want to know the key things investors care about,” says Tayler. “If the need for an environment that allows us to transition becomes one of them, that can feed into government policy discussions.”

Huge sums are needed for investment in the transition, both in developed and emerging countries – Annalena Baerbock, the German foreign minister, has cited a global annual figure of $5 trillion, and a report by the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance estimates that emerging markets and developing economies other than China will need $2.4 trillion per year by 2030.^9,10

Many investors have made their own net-zero commitments, and the only way they can meet those is if the whole economy transitions. As this happens, national transition plans will be crucial to help investors identify opportunities and mitigate risks in their portfolios.

“As holders of sovereign debt, national transition plans can help inform how governments are managing climate risk across their economies,” says Riona Bowhay, senior macro stewardship analyst at Aviva Investors. “They can also identify investment opportunities, as countries set out their forward-looking strategies in terms of how they will develop their economies to meet their transition objectives.”

Yet current NDCs and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate forecasts do not routinely affect investors’ long-term forecasts, because these tend to have shorter time horizons, and there is still a dearth of investable transition-specific opportunities. National transition plans could both provide direction within investors’ time-horizons and help them identify pools of potential projects in a format that supports investment decision-making.

“A national transition plan is a bridge between a high-level commitment on decarbonisation in the NDC and the specific policy in each sector that affects business decisions, and therefore companies’ accounts and projected cashflows,” says Tayler. “That goes into analysts’ valuations of companies, and investment decisions follow.”

Stewart adds that, at country level, creating national transition plans can help EMDEs provide standardised, comparable reporting, enabling investors to recognise which sovereigns have ambitious policies, which are doing implementation well, and to take assets like natural capital into consideration.

“National transition plans can help tell this story better,” says Stewart. “A lot of the natural capital asset side and good policy are not being picked up by the markets. These plans are a way of helping countries’ good work get recognised by the market, credit rating agencies and investors.

“It’s another mechanism and tool to help them do that as simply and cheaply as possible, because a lot of them don’t have a lot of resources,” she adds.

Developing a strategic, whole-of-government approach is complex and must be specific to each country, but high-level principles on best practice are emerging.

A transition plan itself is a time-bound and measurable implementation roadmap, and a robust plan should identify and cost each measure, and define investment plans to finance them.¹¹ It can then give investors and companies direction and deliver the policy, regulatory and financing conditions to unlock climate action.

However, the planning process must form part of a system-wide response to deliver the real economy transition. This should entail taking a strategic approach that embeds and coordinates climate action across government activity, at national, regional and local levels.

As stated in the policy brief to the G20, true transformation will influence economic growth, jobs, and wealth distribution, among others. Whole-of-government coordination is essential to seize opportunities, maximise efficiencies and reveal trade-offs, co-benefits, gaps and potential conflicts.

“Both the top-down and the bottom-up plans from governments and the private sector are important, and this is where intra-government and private sector engagement is key, to inform sector-level transition pathways,” says Bowhay. “Work is happening around what a sectoral pathway would include. But we need to see when high-emitting activities are going to be phased down; when climate solutions are going to be scaled up; and what fiscal and policy incentives are in place to support these activities.

“Because as you start to add that level of granularity, you immediately change what happens in terms of corporate cashflows and assumptions, and change the economics of the transition,” she adds.

Within the planning process, governments can also coordinate and oversee public and private sector efforts, helping them connect and align, and allocate resources effectively. The policy brief explains “central banks, market regulators and supervisors also have an important systemic risk oversight role to play, including to manage the consequences of dislocations in some industries as the economy transforms.”

Stewart says this is particularly pertinent for EMDEs that have to reconcile economic development and getting on a low-emissions path, where it’s not as simple as switching energy sources.

“Some countries may have to allow for growing energy demand, they may not be in a financial position or have the cutting-edge technology to lead on manufacturing transition. All that country context needs to be recognised and that’s why transition planning is an interesting idea,” she says. “More work is needed as we get our heads around what these tools are, what the technologies are, how rapidly they can be cheaply rolled out. But the concept overall supports the development of countries’ needs and the Paris goals.”

To unlock this system-wide response, the authors of the policy brief recommend creating an integrated transition planning ecosystem, something that was echoed in Aviva Investors’ 2023 publication, The tipping point for climate finance.¹²

“What we are referring to is transition plans for all,” says Manning. “It’s not sufficient to just ask the private sector to develop a transition plan. They need direction, they need a supportive policy environment, and perhaps targeted government investment in infrastructure or innovation, or to de-risk certain investments.

“And they need information provided in a decision-useful way, to be able to assess their commitment of capital,” he adds. “To that end, we’re suggesting an ecosystem in which the government develops a national transition plan that is connected with the transition plans of actors across the economy.”

National strategy would be reflected in sectoral policies and pathways, and regulatory settings, developed in collaboration with stakeholders across the economy. As part of this, the government would determine measures to accelerate innovation in key sectors and align infrastructure and public services. Integration mechanisms would help direct, coordinate, finance, incentivise and enable action. And a comprehensive fiscal, financing and investment plan would underpin the strategy.¹³

Figure 1: An integrated transition planning ecosystem

Note: The content under each of the five pillars of corporate and FS TPs is drawn from the disclosure framework developed by the TPT. The authors of the Policy Brief have reinterpreted that content for strategic national TPs, incorporated in enhanced NDCs.

Source: Mark Manning, et al., June 2024.¹⁴

Given the scale and complexity of the transformation, this will necessarily be a dynamic and iterative process.

“Recognising there’s a distinction between the verb ‘planning’ and the noun ‘plan’, the planning will take a huge amount of time and consultation to develop the plan itself,” says Bowhay. “And as governments look at implementation targets at a top-down level and what is on track to be delivered, there’s the delta, and governments need to think about how to work with the private sector to close that gap.”

She adds it is crucial to ensure national transition plans are strategic. “They mustn’t just be a box-ticking exercise for UN Framework Convention on Climate Change requirements,” she says. “Planning should be led from the heart of government, in close cooperation with the finance ministry to ensure there is an economic transformation to deliver climate goals, but also development and domestic prosperity, particularly in the Global South.”

There is growing consensus around the idea that finance ministers should lead the development of national transition plans.¹⁵

The Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action, which brings together ministers from over 90 countries, has issued a call to action and designed a strategic work programme to achieve this, with support from a dedicated NDC initiative, among others. They recognised that, “finance ministries are crucial in mobilising public and private financial resources, allocating investment and expenditures, providing guidance on effective costing practices, developing sound macroeconomic forecasts, designing measures to mitigate potentially adverse distributional impacts of climate policies, and aligning NDC planning with national development planning and budget cycle.”¹⁶

Some of the 2024-2025 priorities of the work programme include pricing carbon and phasing out inefficient and harmful subsidies; mainstreaming climate in economic policy, for example by integrating climate into macroeconomic modelling tools, and identifying gaps and opportunities in green budgeting to catalyse climate action; and mobilising private finance by providing better enabling conditions, strengthening interministerial collaboration, enhancing projects’ bankability and broadening the investor base, as well as using blended finance and labelled bonds. Government procurement, tax expenditures, subsidies and other financial incentives are just some of the tools they can use.¹⁷

“Electric vehicles (EVs) are a good example because we’re seeing different rates of change in different economies,” says Bowhay. “A lot of the growth in the market is being supported by mass government intervention, by way of policy and fiscal incentives, and it materially changes the rate of adoption within a jurisdiction.”

Meanwhile, in a recent report, the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS – a group of central banks and supervisors collaborating to support the transition towards a sustainable economy) added that “policymakers and standard setters can enable usage of data in transition plans by converging towards international economy-wide standards and considering developing public goods, such as emissions databases.^18,19

And in addition to clarity around policy direction, such as through national transition plans, the NGFS lists guidance from global standard setters like the International Sustainability Standards Board, consistency of methodologies, formats and standards, and building capabilities for firms to develop their own transition plans among important enabling conditions. Collaboration across the global financial architecture is essential.²⁰

Taking both nature and the social impacts of transition plans into account is also crucial, so government ministries and departments in charge of the environment, food and agriculture, health, jobs, pensions and welfare must all be part of the process. Bowhay explains that, while nature has a role to play not just in emissions and mitigation, but also in adaptation, trade-offs will have to be considered. Plans will also be country-specific, as each element comes down to materiality.

“In a country like Brazil, restoration and preservation of the Amazon will be a key part of its transition plan, recognising how important it is globally in terms of carbon capture,” she says.

Manning adds that Brazil’s 2023 ecological transformation plan gives a clear sense of strategic ambition, which incorporates emissions reduction, but also a just transition – emphasising green jobs, productivity, and shared and fair earnings, and other sustainability objectives, including around biodiversity.

“It’s a nice expression of the target they’re shooting at and how the target in relation with climate transition sits within wider sustainable development and growth priorities,” he says.

In terms of delivering a just transition from a jobs and wealth perspective, ensuring long-term job creation and relevant skills will be key. In developed economies, for instance, giving companies enough confidence on policy direction and durability to support academic institutions to develop bespoke programmes can impact entire supply chains, particularly given the pace of knowledge and technological change.

“Governments need to consider the co-benefits for society in developing their plan, so thinking about the opportunity for job creation is key. It’s important to have citizens who see a future for themselves and a future for their industry as part of the transition,” says Bowhay.

The World Bank’s Stewart says a standardised framework for all countries, whatever their level of development, would be the most helpful for both sovereigns and investors.

“We want the framework and content to be standardised like a Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, where everyone knows the pillars and how to fill them in,” she says. “The difference might be within the content; countries can do more and add more if they have capacity.”

And indeed, the content differences will be crucial.

G20 emissions represent around 80 per cent of the global total, meaning that group must take a leading role in the climate transition.²¹ Tayler says there is also a systemic risk argument for advanced economies to support EMDEs in their transition: not only are they the most at risk from climate change, but they also hold a huge amount of the resources the world needs for a low-carbon economy. Failing to transition EMDEs will disrupt supply chains, market stability, migration and geopolitics, all of which will affect developed economies.

In addition, developed countries have access to a multi-layered toolbox to incentivise capital flows into their transition plans, from public funding to subsidies, taxes, disclosure, regulation, corporate transition plans and private sector influence.

“Some developing countries might gaze longingly at that toolbox as some of those options are not open to them,” says Tayler. “What they might need is overseas development assistance and support from multilateral development banks and development finance institutions. A finance minister in a developing country faces a very different question than one in a developed nation, which is why we talk so much about mobilising capital for emerging markets and developing economies.”

Stewart adds that, while investors are making progress on risk mitigation efforts, such as limiting deforestation, a lot more needs to be done.

“Funding for emerging markets overall is difficult,” she says. “Adding the climate transition makes it harder, and adding adaptation makes it harder still. And of course, for our countries, a lot of the effort is going to be on adaptation rather than mitigation; we know that’s hard, and it makes the funding gap even larger.”

Not only do EMDEs have different objectives, with a greater focus on adaptation and economic development than developed markets, many also face greater constraints in creating an enabling environment, because their toolbox is more limited, they have less capacity, and many are at earlier stages of their transition planning. There is also a risk of unintended consequences (see Figure 2).²²

Stewart gives the example of the World Bank’s ESG Sovereign Data portal, which is used by many data providers, credit rating agencies and investors for sovereign bond ESG analysis.

“Analysing the data and how it’s being used, we found there is an inherent income bias that hinders capital from going towards the countries that need it most for the Paris accord and UN Sustainable Development Goals,” she says. “We know many of our client countries are exposed to climate more than higher-income countries, but a lot of them are doing really good work in trying to put adaptation and mitigation in place, and many have amazing sources of natural capital, which is not necessarily recognised by financial markets.”

Figure 2: Challenges and policy considerations for tailoring transition plans to the EMDE context

Source: NGFS, as of April 2024.

Stewart says this is why the idea of national transition plans is interesting as a way of recognising many EMDEs’ low emissions pathways and policies and reducing unintended biases.

“We were looking at Ethiopia, for example, as it has a very good NDC and long-term strategy,” she says. “The idea would be to build on the sort of information that’s in the NDC and long-term strategy, then package it in a standardised format across countries and encourage others to do the same.”

Tayler agrees ensuring EMDEs have an enabling environment to receive climate finance is critical. But as part of their transition planning, developed countries also need to look to their own enabling environments and ensure their climate finance is being used as effectively as possible.

“Overseas development assistance and sovereign guarantees are incredibly precious and scarce resources, and it’s important to make sure they are crowding in private finance rather than funding things private finance might be happy to fund regardless,” he says.

The regulatory environment also needs to incentivise private investors to support EMDEs’ transition, which isn’t always the case. Current rules under regimes like Basel or Solvency II, for instance, are heavily tilted in favour of developed countries because of their investment-grade ratings, or because instruments that include a sovereign guarantee can be deemed complex (under Solvency II, complex instruments like structured products carry a higher capital charge than simple ones like equities, meaning insurers must hold more capital to protect against potential falls in value; broadly speaking, this makes investing in complex instruments less profitable).²³

“Under Solvency II, an instrument that includes a layer of first-loss finance offered by a sovereign guarantee or multilateral development bank, and different layers of capital where private finance has a lower rate of return but equally a lower level of risk, is deemed complex and thereby carries a higher prudential charge,” says Tayler. “That undermines its purpose.”

Stewart says the World Bank is looking at all the tools available to unlock financing for emerging markets, recognise their natural capital and the strong policies many have in place, and overcome the income bias in investment analysis.

“Any tool we can use, we’ll try and use as a lever,” she says. “And national transition plans could be an interesting one.”

A blueprint for resilient, sustainable economies

By bringing together disparate elements and providing a strategic orientation, a whole-of-government approach, and a set of coherent policies and investment plans, national transition plans can ensure the most efficient use of public capital and make NDCs investable for private finance.

They can provide huge investment opportunities in the transition by giving investors direction, costed investment plans, enabling conditions for investment and a path for public-private collaboration.

To be most effective, the planning process needs to be both top-down and bottom-up, integrating work across government functions and the private sector and aligning international, national and local objectives and needs. A strategic plan could contribute to job creation, poverty alleviation, increased wellbeing and the protection of natural capital, as well as a reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions. This is likely to be an iterative process that takes place over many years, but if it starts now it could inform countries’ 2025 NDCs and begin unlocking financial flows to support the transition.

In his April speech at Chatham House, Simon Stiell reminded listeners that none of the Sustainable Development Goals would be achievable without tackling the climate crisis.²⁴

“We need to enable bold new national climate plans by all nations that protect people, boost jobs and drive inclusive economic growth,” he said. “And we need them by early next year.”